Official Washington has identified China as the primary challenger to the United States in virtually every sphere. This overwhelming emphasis on Beijing as the ultimate threat to the United States is misguided and is more likely to undermine U.S. security than it is to enhance it.
Focusing on China is a good way to pump up the Pentagon’s already bloated budget – which is currently higher than the peaks of the Korean or Vietnam wars or the Reagan buildup of the 1980s — but it will not make us safer. A war between the U.S. and China – two nuclear-armed powers – would be catastrophic and preventing it should be a central tenet of U.S. security strategy. But current, military-centric policies are more likely to risk such a conflict than they are to keep it from occurring.
It’s important to begin any assessment of the challenge from China by noting that the United States currently outpaces it militarily by a large margin. The U.S. has a more modern air force, a more capable navy and a far larger nuclear arsenal than China, and it spends roughly three times as much on its military. The spending gap widens considerably when U.S. allies in NATO, Australia, Japan, and South Korea are taken into account.
The nuclear gap is especially stark – the United States’ active nuclear stockpile is 11 times the size of China’s and deployed U.S. warheads are five times what China possesses. The gap between the U.S. and Chinese militaries is documented in detail in a recent analysis by the Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation.
China remains a regional military player, not a global military power, and the notion that the United States needs to keep large forces at the ready, in close striking distance to China at all times, should itself be subjected to scrutiny. Forces can be surged in a crisis, at much less risk and much lower cost. Perhaps most importantly, China’s greatest challenges to the United States are economic and political, not military, and the Pentagon budget should reflect that reality.
All of the above is not meant to suggest that China is not engaged in troubling conduct, from its crackdown on democracy activists in Hong Kong to its brutal treatment of its Uyghur population. But these activities will not stop due to any increase in U.S. military capabilities – or military threats – in China’s vicinity. They should be the focus of concerted diplomatic efforts, not an excuse for a military buildup.
In addition, the greatest risks to U.S. lives and livelihoods do not emanate from China but from pandemics, climate change, white supremacy, and racial and economic injustice, none of which can be addressed through military means. This is underscored by the fact that nearly 600,000 Americans have died due to Covid-19 – more than in all U.S. wars from World War II to the present combined. And left unchecked, climate change will cause droughts, floods, fires, and storms that could make large parts of the world uninhabitable.
Cooperation with China on issues like climate change and preventing pandemics should take precedence over spinning out war scenarios or preparing for a military confrontation. The future of the planet depends on it, but current policies are undermining the prospects of collaborating on solving the world’s most urgent problems.
Reversing course on U.S. military policy towards China will not be an easy task, but it is essential if the United States is to develop and implement a strategy that makes America and the world a safer place, both now and for the generations to come.